The US bond epic sell-off hit the global chip module market industrial chain reconstruction accelerated
Recently, the US Treasury market suffered the most violent sell-off in 20 years, and the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through the 5.2% mark, triggering a shock in global capital markets. As a capital-intensive industry, the semiconductor chip and module industry bears the brunt of the impact, from upstream equipment procurement to the end consumer market.
First, the soaring cost of financing, US chip companies under pressure
The sharp rise in US bond yields has directly pushed up corporate financing costs, hitting US semiconductor giants that rely on capital expansion:
1,Intel postponed the Ohio fab construction plan to 2030, its 2024 net loss of $18.8 billion, AI chip research and development investment is severely limited ;
2,On Semiconductor announced 2,400 global job cuts, 2024 net profit fell 32.5% year on year, automotive chip line expansion plans on hold ;
3,Micron DDR5 memory spot prices rose more than 50% in a day, companies were forced to raise prices to transfer tariff and financing cost pressure, but the risk of customer loss increased .
At the same time, Qualcomm and other companies due to the liquidity crisis caused by the US debt sell-off, the stock price fell to a historic low, forced to launch a large-scale restructuring .
Second, the "de-Americanization" of supply chains is accelerating
The US debt crisis superimposed tariff policies, forcing the global chip industry chain to accelerate restructuring:
1,Chinese firms turn to home-grown alternatives
The Chinese customs optimized the customs clearance scheme through the AI intelligent classification system, and the intelligent sweeping robot exported from Zhejiang was re-coded as "household cleaning equipment" to avoid the US tax increase list; Qingdao Port launched a "tariff pre-payment" service to help semiconductor companies reduce logistics costs .
2,US IDM vendor share shrinks
Texas Instruments (TI) chips made in the United States lost its price advantage due to 125% tariff, and its Chinese customers turned to local manufacturers such as Shilanwei and China Resources Micro, and automotive IGBT chip orders surged 40%.
3,Southeast Asian foundry compete for transfer orders
Packaging factories in Vietnam and Malaysia undertake the outflow capacity of US chip companies, but China's mature process chips still dominate the middle and low-end module market with 90% of the global processing capacity.
Third, the consumption side of the "price earthquake" spread
1,smartphones : U.S. retail prices of iPhone 16 series soar to $2,300 due to tariffs and supply chain costs, 90% of households delay replacement plans ;
2,new energy vehicles : Chinese auto enterprises replace imports through domestic silicon carbide modules, but the channel price of MCU chip for vehicles still rose by 30% in the short term;
3,industrial equipment : The risk of US lithography machine parts supply failure forces SMIC to speed up the verification of domestic parts, and the equipment delivery cycle is extended to 18 months .
Fourth, industry trend: reconstruction and game parallel
1,technology path differentiation : the United States focuses on the research and development of advanced processes below 3nm, China accelerates the independence of the whole industry chain of 28nm mature processes, and semiconductor exports will exceed trillion in 2024;
2,capital flow adjustment : Global semiconductor investment tilted to the "non-US technology route" such as RISC-V architecture and storage and computing integrated chips, and the amount of Chinese financing in related fields increased by 217% year-on-year.
